Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues.

BACKGROUND: In November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the Cigarette Tax Scorecard which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components-cigarette price, affordability change, tax share and tax structure. This study examines the relationship between the overall cigarette tax score and tobacco excise tax revenue between 2014 and 2018. METHODS: Using cigarette tax scores from the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard and tobacco excise tax revenue information from WHO, this analysis is based on ordinary least squares estimations to assess the association between the overall cigarette tax scores and tobacco excise tax revenues per capita controlling for countries' tobacco control environment, sociodemographic characteristics and country and year fixed effects. RESULTS: A 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.98 (in constant 2018 purchasing power parity international dollars). For low and middle-income countries and lower performing countries at baseline, a 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.32 and $6.92, respectively. If all countries had increased their scores to '5', the tobacco excise tax revenue per capita would have increased by 22.51%. CONCLUSIONS: Higher overall cigarette tax scores are associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita. Countries aiming to reach higher cigarette tax scores would be able to reduce tobacco use and increase their tobacco tax revenue, which can be allocated to development priorities.

Taxation of novel and emerging nicotine and tobacco products (HTPs, ENDS, and ENNDS) globally and in Latin America.

This article provides a snapshot of the market structure and regulatory approaches around novel and emerging tobacco and nicotine products, both globally and in Latin America, with a focus on excise taxation. Using data from leading market research companies, the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic 2021, and country laws and decrees, the article analyses the evolution and market structure of heated tobacco products (HTPs), electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and electronic non-nicotine delivery systems (ENNDS). This is followed by a summary review of regulatory approaches adopted by countries toward these products, with a particular focus on excise tax policies currently implemented. Based on the well-established knowledge about tobacco taxation best practices and on WHO's recent recommendations on the taxation of novel and emerging tobacco and nicotine products, the authors then discuss possible elements of a good tax policy approach for countries to consider.

En este artículo se presenta una sinopsis de la estructura del mercado y los enfoques regulatorios de los productos nuevos y emergentes de nicotina y tabaco, tanto en América Latina como a nivel mundial, con especial atención a los impuestos selectivos al consumo. Mediante datos de las principales empresas de investigación de mercado, el Informe OMS sobre la epidemia mundial de tabaquismo del 2021 y las leyes y los decretos de los países, en este artículo se analizan la evolución y la estructura del mercado de los productos de tabaco calentado (PTC), los sistemas electrónicos de administración de nicotina (SEAN) y los sistemas electrónicos sin nicotina (SESN). Además, se resumen los enfoques regulatorios adoptados por los países en lo relativo a estos productos, prestando particular interés a las políticas que se aplican actualmente con respecto al impuesto selectivo al consumo. Sobre la base de conocimientos bien consolidados sobre las mejores prácticas de tributación del tabaco y las recientes recomendaciones de la OMS sobre la tributación de los productos nuevos y emergentes de nicotina y tabaco, los autores presentan a consideración de los países los posibles elementos de un enfoque para abordar la política tributaria de forma satisfactoria.

Este artigo fornece um retrato da estrutura de mercado e das abordagens regulatórias dos produtos novos e emergentes de tabaco e nicotina, tanto globalmente quanto na América Latina, com foco na tributação sobre o consumo. Utilizando dados das principais empresas de pesquisa de mercado, do Relatório da OMS sobre a Epidemia Global do Tabaco 2021 e de leis e decretos dos países, o artigo analisa a evolução e a estrutura do mercado de produtos de tabaco aquecido (HTPs, sigla do inglês heated tobacco products), sistemas eletrônicos de liberação de nicotina (ENDS, sigla do inglês electronic nicotine delivery system) e sistemas eletrônicos sem nicotina (ENNDS, sigla do inglês electronic non-nicotine delivery system). Segue-se uma breve revisão das abordagens regulatórias adotadas pelos países em relação a esses produtos, com enfoque especial nas políticas tributárias sobre o consumo atualmente implementadas. A seguir, os autores discutem possíveis elementos de uma abordagem adequada de política tributária a serem considerados pelos países, com base no conhecimento já bem estabelecido sobre as melhores práticas de tributação do tabaco e nas recentes recomendações da OMS para a tributação de produtos novos e emergentes de tabaco e nicotina.

Taxation of novel and emerging nicotine and tobacco products (HTPs, ENDS, and ENNDS) globally and in Latin America

[ABSTRACT]. This article provides a snapshot of the market structure and regulatory approaches around novel and emerg- ing tobacco and nicotine products, both globally and in Latin America, with a focus on excise taxation. Using data from leading market research companies, the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic 2021, and country laws and decrees, the article analyses the evolution and market structure of heated tobacco products (HTPs), electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and electronic non-nicotine delivery systems (ENNDS). This is followed by a summary review of regulatory approaches adopted by countries toward these products, with a particular focus on excise tax policies currently implemented. Based on the well-established knowledge about tobacco taxation best practices and on WHO’s recent recommendations on the taxation of novel and emerging tobacco and nicotine products, the authors then discuss possible elements of a good tax policy approach for countries to consider.

[RESUMEN]. En este artículo se presenta una sinopsis de la estructura del mercado y los enfoques regulatorios de los productos nuevos y emergentes de nicotina y tabaco, tanto en América Latina como a nivel mundial, con especial atención a los impuestos selectivos al consumo. Mediante datos de las principales empresas de investigación de mercado, el Informe OMS sobre la epidemia mundial de tabaquismo del 2021 y las leyes y los decretos de los países, en este artículo se analizan la evolución y la estructura del mercado de los productos de tabaco calentado (PTC), los sistemas electrónicos de administración de nicotina (SEAN) y los sistemas electrónicos sin nicotina (SESN). Además, se resumen los enfoques regulatorios adoptados por los países en lo relativo a estos productos, prestando particular interés a las políticas que se aplican actualmente con respecto al impuesto selectivo al consumo. Sobre la base de conocimientos bien consolidados sobre las mejores prácticas de tributación del tabaco y las recientes recomendaciones de la OMS sobre la tributación de los productos nuevos y emergentes de nicotina y tabaco, los autores presentan a consideración de los países los posibles elementos de un enfoque para abordar la política tributaria de forma satisfactoria.

[RESUMO]. Este artigo fornece um retrato da estrutura de mercado e das abordagens regulatórias dos produtos novos e emergentes de tabaco e nicotina, tanto globalmente quanto na América Latina, com foco na tributação sobre o consumo. Utilizando dados das principais empresas de pesquisa de mercado, do Relatório da OMS sobre a Epidemia Global do Tabaco 2021 e de leis e decretos dos países, o artigo analisa a evolução e a estrutura do mercado de produtos de tabaco aquecido (HTPs, sigla do inglês heated tobacco products), sistemas eletrônicos de liberação de nicotina (ENDS, sigla do inglês electronic nicotine delivery system) e sistemas eletrônicos sem nicotina (ENNDS, sigla do inglês electronic non-nicotine delivery system). Segue-se uma breve revisão das abordagens regulatórias adotadas pelos países em relação a esses produtos, com enfoque especial nas políticas tributárias sobre o consumo atualmente implementadas. A seguir, os autores discutem possíveis elementos de uma abordagem adequada de política tributária a serem considerados pelos países, com base no conhecimento já bem estabelecido sobre as melhores práticas de tributação do tabaco e nas recentes recomendações da OMS para a tributação de produtos novos e emergentes de tabaco e nicotina.

Potential impact of eliminating illicit trade in cigarettes: a demand-side perspective.

BACKGROUND: The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (the Protocol) entered into force in September 2018, and commits Parties to implement a package of measures to combat this global problem. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes on consumption, use and tax revenues. METHODS: We identified 36 countries where an independent (non-industry sponsored) study of the illicit cigarette market was available. We developed a conceptual framework for describing how the elimination of illicit cigarettes might impact on demand (consumption and use) and applied this framework to our sample of countries to assess the impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes across different settings. FINDINGS: Illicit cigarettes account on average for 11.2% of the market in these 36 countries. The elimination of illicit cigarettes would reduce total cigarette consumption by 1.9% across these countries. The decrease in 'group A' countries-where illicit cigarettes are >15% of the market-would average 4.1%. The smoking rate would decrease by 1.0% in relative terms including by 2.2% in group A countries. Tax revenues from the legal sale of cigarettes would increase by 11.2% including by 25.1% in group A countries. CONCLUSIONS: The illicit cigarette market reflects a complex interplay between supply and demand, with an array of different country conditions. Regardless of the situation, our study highlights the contribution that the elimination of illicit trade can make to tobacco control through demand reduction while at the same time generating significant tax revenues.

Taxation of novel and emerging nicotine and tobacco products (HTPs, ENDS, and ENNDS) globally and in Latin America / Impuestos a los productos nuevos y emergentes de nicotina y tabaco (PTC, SEAN y SESN) en América Latina y en todo el mundo / Tributação de produtos novos e emergentes de nicotina e tabaco (HTPs, ENDS e ENNDS) no mundo e na América Latina

ABSTRACT This article provides a snapshot of the market structure and regulatory approaches around novel and emerging tobacco and nicotine products, both globally and in Latin America, with a focus on excise taxation. Using data from leading market research companies, the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic 2021, and country laws and decrees, the article analyses the evolution and market structure of heated tobacco products (HTPs), electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and electronic non-nicotine delivery systems (ENNDS). This is followed by a summary review of regulatory approaches adopted by countries toward these products, with a particular focus on excise tax policies currently implemented. Based on the well-established knowledge about tobacco taxation best practices and on WHO's recent recommendations on the taxation of novel and emerging tobacco and nicotine products, the authors then discuss possible elements of a good tax policy approach for countries to consider.

RESUMEN En este artículo se presenta una sinopsis de la estructura del mercado y los enfoques regulatorios de los productos nuevos y emergentes de nicotina y tabaco, tanto en América Latina como a nivel mundial, con especial atención a los impuestos selectivos al consumo. Mediante datos de las principales empresas de investigación de mercado, el Informe OMS sobre la epidemia mundial de tabaquismo del 2021 y las leyes y los decretos de los países, en este artículo se analizan la evolución y la estructura del mercado de los productos de tabaco calentado (PTC), los sistemas electrónicos de administración de nicotina (SEAN) y los sistemas electrónicos sin nicotina (SESN). Además, se resumen los enfoques regulatorios adoptados por los países en lo relativo a estos productos, prestando particular interés a las políticas que se aplican actualmente con respecto al impuesto selectivo al consumo. Sobre la base de conocimientos bien consolidados sobre las mejores prácticas de tributación del tabaco y las recientes recomendaciones de la OMS sobre la tributación de los productos nuevos y emergentes de nicotina y tabaco, los autores presentan a consideración de los países los posibles elementos de un enfoque para abordar la política tributaria de forma satisfactoria.

RESUMO Este artigo fornece um retrato da estrutura de mercado e das abordagens regulatórias dos produtos novos e emergentes de tabaco e nicotina, tanto globalmente quanto na América Latina, com foco na tributação sobre o consumo. Utilizando dados das principais empresas de pesquisa de mercado, do Relatório da OMS sobre a Epidemia Global do Tabaco 2021 e de leis e decretos dos países, o artigo analisa a evolução e a estrutura do mercado de produtos de tabaco aquecido (HTPs, sigla do inglês heated tobacco products), sistemas eletrônicos de liberação de nicotina (ENDS, sigla do inglês electronic nicotine delivery system) e sistemas eletrônicos sem nicotina (ENNDS, sigla do inglês electronic non-nicotine delivery system). Segue-se uma breve revisão das abordagens regulatórias adotadas pelos países em relação a esses produtos, com enfoque especial nas políticas tributárias sobre o consumo atualmente implementadas. A seguir, os autores discutem possíveis elementos de uma abordagem adequada de política tributária a serem considerados pelos países, com base no conhecimento já bem estabelecido sobre as melhores práticas de tributação do tabaco e nas recentes recomendações da OMS para a tributação de produtos novos e emergentes de tabaco e nicotina.

Revisiting the association between worldwide implementation of the MPOWER package and smoking prevalence, 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: We revisited the association between progress in MPOWER implementation from 2008 to 2016 and smoking prevalence from 2009 to 2017 and offered an in-depth understanding of differential outcomes for various country groups. METHODS: We used data from six rounds of the WHO Reports on the Global Tobacco Epidemic and calculated a composite MPOWER Score for each country in each period. We categorised the countries in four initial conditions based on their tobacco control preparedness measured by MPOWER score in 2008 and smoking burden measured by age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence in 2006: (1) High MPOWER - high prevalence (HM-HP). (2) High MPOWER - low prevalence (HM-LP). (3) Low MPOWER - high prevalence (LM-HP). (4) Low MPOWER - low prevalence (LM-LP). We estimated the association of age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence with MPOWER Score and cigarette tax rates using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models including both year and country fixed effects. RESULTS: A unit increase of the MPOWER Score was associated with 0.39 and 0.50 percentage points decrease in adult daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and HM-LP countries, respectively. When tax rate was controlled for separately from MPOWE, an increase in tax rate showed a negative association with daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and LM-LP countries, while the MPOWE Score showed a negative association for all initial condition country groups except for LM-LP countries. CONCLUSION: A decade after the introduction of the WHO MPOWER package, we observed that the countries with higher initial tobacco control preparedness and higher smoking burden were able to reduce the adult daily smoking prevalence significantly.

Cigarette affordability in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region is the only WHO region with increasing male prevalence of smoking tobacco products observed and predicted. There is no regional analysis of cigarette affordability in the literature. AIMS: This study aimed to compare the affordability of the cheapest, most sold and premium brands of cigarettes between countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) and countries in the rest of the world by income group in 2008 and 2018. METHODS: Affordability was defined as the percentage of GDP per capita needed to purchase 2000 cigarette sticks. A simple average and 95% confidence interval of affordability was calculated by income group for EMR countries and for the rest of the world. RESULTS: Historically, the cheapest, most sold and premium brands of cigarettes have on average been more affordable in the EMR compared to the same brands in the rest of the world in every income group. This pattern persists despite some convergence between the affordability of cigarettes in the EMR and in countries in the rest of the world. CONCLUSION: The historic and persisting higher affordability of cigarettes in the EMR relative to the rest of the world could offer an explanation to the tobacco prevalence trends in the region. Continued implementation of Article 6 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control is needed.

Trends in cigarette demand and supply in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Since the tobacco epidemic is moving from developed to developing countries, it is important to understand trends in cigarette demand and supply. We focus on the African market since it offers the tobacco industry one of the best expansion potentials. DATA: A large variety of data from commercial (Canadean, Euromonitor International, tobacco industry reports), governmental (United Nations Comtrade, national statistics), and academic sources (Cigarette Citadels Map and journal articles) were utilized. METHODS: We compile data from multiple sources to study cigarette demand in Africa from 1990 to 2012. We then focus on cigarette production and international cigarette trade to detect structural changes in cigarette supply over the past few decades. We contrast data from these different sources. RESULTS: Cigarette demand and supply data in Africa is limited and is sometimes inconsistent across different sources. Given this caveat, we found that the overall demand for cigarettes (measured by sales) in the 22 countries covered by Canadean, which represents 80% of Africa's population, increased by 44% (from 165.6 billion cigarettes to 238.5 billion cigarettes) from 1990 to 2012. This higher demand has been met by cigarette production increasing in these 22 countries by 106% during the same period. As a result, Africa has moved from being a net importer to a net exporter of cigarettes. At the same time, cigarette production has become more concentrated as the tobacco industry has strategically identified certain countries as production hubs. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring the production, consumption and trade of cigarettes by improving the quality of surveillance is necessary to understand the demand and supply of cigarettes not only in Africa, but globally.

Modelling the impact of raising tobacco taxes on public health and finance.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential for tobacco tax to contribute to the 2030 agenda for sustainable development by reducing tobacco use, saving lives and generating tax revenues. METHODS: A model of the global cigarette market in 2014--developed using data for 181 countries--was used to quantify the impact of raising cigarette excise in each country by one international dollar (I$) per 20-cigarette pack. All currencies were converted into I$ using purchasing power parity exchange rates. The results were summarized by income group and region. FINDINGS: According to our model, the tax increase would lead the mean retail price of cigarettes to increase by 42%--from 3.20 to 4.55 I$ per 20-cigarette pack. The prevalence of daily smoking would fall by 9%--from 14.1% to 12.9% of adults--resulting in 66 million fewer smokers and 15 million fewer smoking-attributable deaths among the adults who were alive in 2014. Cigarette excise revenue would increase by 47%--from 402 billion to 593 billion I$--giving an extra 190 billion I$s in revenue. This, in turn, could help create the fiscal space required to finance development priorities. For example, if the extra revenue was allocated to health budgets, public expenditure on health could increase by 4% globally. CONCLUSION: Tobacco taxation can prevent millions of smoking-attributable deaths throughout the world and contribute to achieving the sustainable development goals. There is also potential for tobacco taxation to create the fiscal space needed to finance development, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Exploring the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking among adults: a cross-country study of low- and middle-income nations.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the relationship between cigarette prices and adult smoking in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is relatively limited. This study offers new descriptive evidence on this relationship using data from a set of 13 LMICs. METHODS: We use Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) cross-country data from approximately 200,000 participants aged 15 and older. Estimates on the relationship between prices and adult smoking were obtained from logit models of smoking participation and ordinary least squares models of conditional cigarette demand. RESULTS: Higher prices were associated with lower demand across countries, in terms of both smoking prevalence and daily number of cigarettes smoked among smokers. Our estimates suggest that the total price elasticity of cigarette demand in LMICs is approximately -0.53. We find that higher socioeconomic status (SES), represented through wealth and education effects is associated with lower chance of smoking overall, but among existing smokers, it may be associated with a larger number of cigarettes smoked. CONCLUSIONS: After controlling for a set of individual demographic and country characteristics, cigarette prices retain a significant role in shaping cigarette demand across LMICs. Because higher SES is associated with a reduced chance of smoking overall but also with increased daily consumption among current smokers, optimal tobacco tax policies in LMICs may face an added need to accommodate to shifting SES structures within the populations of these countries.